Subject to certain wind-down periods described below, the USA withdrawal from the JCPOA will impact primarily non-U.S. persons, as almost all sanctions relief provided by the United States pertained to secondary sanctions (i.e., sanctions that apply to non-U.S. persons acting outside US jurisdiction).
Still, Iran will feel the pain from US sanctions, even without cooperation from the other worldwide partners. In theory, some countries could receive waivers from sanctions if they reduce their oil purchases from Iran by some unspecific amount. Given recent developments in North Korea, it could also convince Iran's leaders that the only way to be heard and respected by the U.S.is to become nuclear-capable, sparking a resumption of its atomic weapons program. In connection with the announcement, the U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control ("OFAC") published guidance clarifying that, following applicable wind-down periods, the United States would begin re-imposing all nuclear-related sanctions that were lifted pursuant to the JCPOA.
US President Donald Trump announced on May 8 that the US was withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an worldwide agreement reached in 2015 by Iran, the United States, Russia, France, China, Great Britain, Germany and the EU. Even the loss of the big airplane orders should be manageable: Boeing got 912 net orders in 2017, compared with the 110 promised to Iran.
Phillip Smyth, Soref fellow at The Washington Institute, said the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Quds Force have "secure sources" of funding.
It is possible for Iran to flood the market with oil in anticipation of the sanctions. A muted reaction from Iran would paint the U.S.as the aggressor, allowing Iran to more latitude to skirt US enforcement.
One factor that could prevent markets from tightening further is soaring USA oil output.
Citigroup's Ed Morse expects oil prices to rise past $80/bbl in the short term as Iranian production declines, but with those higher prices creating more production growth in the USA and some other places - enough to bring crude down to the low $60s or high $50s in 2019.
The American president's withdrawal, as well as increasing investments into alternative energy, sent prices soaring last week to their highest level since 2014, the NZ Herald reported.
When sanctions against Iran were waived in early 2016, NITC was celebrating its 60th anniversary and was the sixth-largest tanker owner in the world.
As well as the nuclear deal fallout, tensions between the countries have been rising over Iran's support for the Huthi rebels in Yemen, who have been firing rockets across the border.
Officials are considering whether a drop in Iranian exports and a decline in supply from another OPEC member, Venezuela, demands adjusting the deal that runs to the end of 2018.
A number of countries have already cut reliance on Iranian oil, as well as other "traditional" sources of supply, due to a surge in cheaper United States crude exports.
"The prime minister reiterated the government's position on the Iran nuclear deal, noting that we and our European partners remain firmly committed to ensuring the deal is upheld", Downing Street announced in a statement following May's phone conversation with Trump on Friday.