Donald Trump exit from nuke deal won't affect oil industry, says Iran

Donald Trump exit from nuke deal won't affect oil industry, says Iran

Donald Trump exit from nuke deal won't affect oil industry, says Iran

But some analysts don't expect the rally to last. The country is reportedly set to buy the most oil it has ever bought within any given period at more than nine billion barrels, almost 10 per cent of global demand.

Trump announced a USA withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal on Tuesday and said he was preparing new sanctions against Iran.

The global oil market is finely balanced, with top exporter Saudi Arabia and No.1 producer Russian Federation having led efforts to curb oil supply to prop up prices.

Snapping sanctions back on Iran will have an immediate impact on less than 200,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil, according to analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts.

USA investment bank Jefferies said in a note on Friday that it expects Iranian crude oil exports to start falling in the next few months. "Much depends on the politicians' will, chiefly in the European countries".

But the most stinging result of America's decision to pull out of the Iran deal could be the birth of a new war in the Middle East. Iran, which would be under no restrictions to not follow a nuclear program, has vowed to scale up its preparations of uranium enrichment if the deal collapses.




However, Saudi Arabia - the de-facto head of OPEC - signaled this week it could up its own production to make up for lost barrels from Iran. Japan and South Korea might comply with the reimposition to keep good ties with the USA, but might also seek exemptions to minimize damage.

This echoes statements from China, which has also said it wanted to continue normal business ties with Iran and is now financing multi billion dollar infrastructure and electricity projects in the country.

Since the easing of sanctions against Iran in early 2016, German exports to the country have jumped by more than 40 percent, with machinery and vehicles high in demand. If the policy extends to higher tariffs to protect the USA oil industry as it did with the steel industry, it is possible that a buying frenzy might be sparked to secure supplies at lower prices. But the recent return of sanctions on Iran has triggered supply concerns and boosted prices. In the case of oil sales, there will be a 180-day period for countries to wrap up existing contracts and achieve "significant reductions" in their purchases of crude from Iran.

Since the sanctions were lifted in 2016, major European companies, partly wary of the remaining US sanctions on Iran, have been reluctant to do business with Tehran, which needs to attract over $100 billion in foreign investment to boost its crude output. The credibility of United States as a responsible world power will be further questioned. The Venezuelan elections are coming up May 20. "The circumstance I'm in now is that I'm the national security adviser to the president, I'm not the national security decision maker". If Maduro wins again, it could bring continuing chaos and a further decline in oil volumes.

The European Commission has been examining measures to counter the introduction of any US sanctions that could harm European businesses.

There is little doubt the pressure on supplies from Iran will have a supportive impact on prices, but U.S. producers are expected to increase output and Opec has the spare capacity to fill in any gaps in the mid-term, so this factor is likely to have a limited effect. "Ultimately it's about supply and demand." said Pavel Molchanov from Raymond James.

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